Il Chiaro Finanziario’s Weekly Brief: July 27 – August 2, 2025 – Global Markets Under Pressure: From the NASDAQ’s Plunge to the US Jobs Crisis

A real pressure on stock markets is underway, and the era of easy rallies seems to have come to an end. The financial week closed with a sharp decline for global stock indices, marking a potential reversal from the rallies of recent months. The NASDAQ Composite lost 2.2%, the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, and France’s CAC 40 dropped a heavy 2.9%. The main cause of this weakness is an alarm signal from the US economy, which has cast doubt on the market’s stability.

📉 A Global Sell-off: A Detailed Look at the Markets

Here’s an overview of how the main indices performed:

• CAC 40: The worst-performing index of the week (-2.9%), dragged down by strong sales in the financial and technology sectors.
• NASDAQ Composite: -2.2%. The tech sector, which has led the gains so far, is beginning to show signs of exhaustion.
• S&P 500: -1.6%. The index is affected by macroeconomic pressure, while remaining more “defensive” than the NASDAQ.
• FTSE MIB: -0.6%. The Italian market suffered, particularly banking stocks, and is under strong technical pressure.

🌍 The Cause: The US Labor Market Stalls and Rattles the Economy

The data that triggered the sell-off came from the US employment report:

• Only 73,000 new jobs were created in July, significantly below the 106,000 expected.
• June’s data was dramatically revised downward, from 147,000 to just 14,000 jobs.

This sign of weakness, combined with a contracting manufacturing index, has raised fears of potential economic stagnation. The Fed is now in a difficult position: inflation remains high, but economic growth is weak.

📈 The Great US Tech Divergence: The End of a Rally?

The American tech sector, the engine of recent gains, is showing a clear split. The leadership is no longer a given, and the rallies that united all big tech stocks seem a distant memory. This situation is significantly increasing pressure on stock markets.

The difference is stark: while NVIDIA continues its surge, Apple closed the year in the red for the first time in a decade. According to analysts, the momentum of big tech is “stretched,” and the market now requires greater caution.

🇮🇹 FTSE MIB and Italy: Between Debt and Generous Dividends

The Italian market followed the negative global trend, with the FTSE MIB under pressure and technical indicators signaling a strong “oversold” state.

The main risk in Italy is the high financial leverage of some big cap companies. Stocks like Poste Italiane (779.4% Debt/Equity) and Enel (188.6%) are vulnerable to future interest rate increases.

However, the Italian market also offers a lifeline: dividends. Stocks like Eni (6.9%), Generali (4.5%), and Intesa Sanpaolo (6.8%) offer generous yields, which in an uncertain environment attract investors seeking consistent cash flow.

💡 Summary of Signals: What to Expect Now?

• Global Pressure: Markets have entered a phase of strong pressure, with macro data challenging the narrative of solid growth.
• Risks of Stock Rallies: The era of easy gains in the tech sector is over. Investors must be selective, as not all stocks will continue to rise, and the risks of correction are high.
• Sector Rotation: Capital flows are shifting from expensive US tech stocks towards more defensive, international markets or assets like gold and cryptocurrencies.

Strategy: This is a time that rewards caution. The pressure on stock markets reminds us that it is essential to analyze balance sheet strength, the sustainability of cash flow, and to diversify to protect against volatility.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.