Il Chiaro Finanziario Weekly Update: September 8 – 13, 2025

This week was full of important economic news that kept markets on edge. Data from the United States, China, and the rest of the world created an uncertain picture, with conflicting signals making the central banks’ next move difficult to predict.

1. The Fed Between Mixed Signals: Inflation and Labor

This week, market attention was all focused on the relationship between inflation and Fed rates. New inflation data in the United States surprised everyone. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, more than expected. On an annual basis, inflation is at 2.9%, the highest figure in seven months. While this shouldn’t prevent a likely rate cut, it shows that price pressure has not yet subsided.

At the same time, another important data point showed that the economy is slowing down: the government revised its employment estimates downwards by 911,000 jobs. This means the labor market is weaker than previously thought, strengthening the argument that the Fed may cut rates to support the economy.

This situation creates a problem for the Fed: on one hand, inflation is not falling; on the other, labor is slowing down. The relationship between inflation and Fed rates continues to be the central theme.

2. Market Risks and the Global Outlook

The situation outside the United States is also complex. The Chinese economy continues to show signs of profound difficulty. Prices fell more than expected, with both consumer and producer inflation on the decline. This shows that recent government aid has done little to revive consumer spending. Tensions with the United States over trade are also weighing on the economy.

3. News That Moved the Stock Markets

This week, there was also some important news that influenced individual company stocks:

• Mediobanca: There was a change of control. Monte dei Paschi di Siena acquired a 62% majority stake, and Mediobanca’s long-standing CEO, Alberto Nagel, will step down.
• SiTime Corp: The company had an excellent quarter, with earnings much higher than expected (+123.81% compared to estimates). This was despite news that the CEO sold some of his shares.
• Eni: The Italian company met with U.S. leaders to discuss energy security and long-term natural gas agreements to help Europe reduce its dependence on Russian gas.

4. Comparing Market Performance – September

The start of September showed decisive movements, with a clear contrast between a strong rally in Asia and consolidation in the United States and Europe.

5. Stock of the Week (TF1 SA)

This week, the spotlight is on TF1 SA (ENXTPA:TFI), the French media company. The stock attracted investor attention thanks to an exceptional dividend yield and a solid balance sheet.

Drivers of the Rally

The main factor driving interest in TF1 is its 8.1% dividend yield, one of the highest in the media sector. This dividend is not only generous but is also supported by a strong balance sheet and cash flow that is more than sufficient to cover payments to shareholders.

Additionally, the company shows robust profitability with a Return on Equity (ROE) of 10.3% and an EBITDA margin of 15.2%. Net income for 2024 is expected to be €205.5 million, a sign of a healthy business.

Valuation and Outlook

From a valuation perspective, TF1 presents an interesting opportunity. The stock has a P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) of 7.8x, well below the sector average. Analysts’ fair value estimates indicate a potential price increase of up to 23.8% compared to the current value. Earnings per share are expected to grow by 6.6%, and the 56.5% payout ratio suggests there is room for further dividend increases.

Points of Attention

Despite the very positive picture, it’s important to consider some risks. The stock is near its annual highs, with a one-year performance of +17.2%. This makes short-term profit-taking possible. Moreover, the projected revenue growth for 2025 is modest, just 0.8%, which limits expectations for explosive growth.

In short, TF1 is ideal for those seeking a stock with high, stable dividends and moderate growth over time.

6. A Look Ahead: Awaiting the Fed’s Move

Market attention is now all on the Federal Reserve’s next decision. This week’s data creates a difficult situation for the central bank: it must decide whether to cut rates to help the economy or wait longer to be sure it has stopped inflation. The debate remains open.

Disclaimer and Source This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Source: Reuters, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trading Economics, Investing.com.