The Weekly Point of Il Chiaro Finanziario: August 3 – 9, 2025 – Global Markets Rally, between euphoria and uncertainty
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Welcome back to our weekly market analysis . This week’s economic and financial news showed markets in full euphoria. In our weekly summary of the financial markets, we analyze the record growth of global equities, conflicting macroeconomic signals, and the uncertainty that suggests caution. The NASDAQ and Asian stock markets are the real stars, while the US dollar remained volatile and the global economy showed conflicting signals. Here is a detailed analysis of what happened.
Global Equity Markets: A weekly market analysis between rally and surprises
The week was dominated by an impressive growth in equities, with the technology sector and Asian markets in the lead.
Wall Street: The NASDAQ Composite led the recovery, marking a jump of 11.1% year-to-date and a notable +19.6% over the last 3 months. This weekly market summary highlights how the tech sector continues to be the engine of growth, driven by AI and record profits. The S&P 500 showed a solid trend (+8.6% YTD), while the Dow Jones was more defensive and less brilliant (+3.8% YTD).
Asia: Asian markets stole the show with exceptional performance. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 45.5% year-on-year, far outperforming Western markets. The Shanghai Comp. (+27.0% 1Y) and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+19.4% 1Y) also stood out, fueled by stimulus policies and incoming capital flows.
Europe: European markets show a more cautious picture. The French CAC 40 remained flat (+4.9% YTD), with the rest of the Eurozone struggling to find strong momentum.
Macro News: Mixed signals and dollar volatility in this weekly financial market summary
Analyzing the individual stocks in this weekly market analysis summary reveals a strong divergence between sectors and valuations. The Strongest: On Wall Street, AI-related stocks such as Palantir Technologies Inc. (+523.0% 1Y), which demonstrates the power of the tech hype, and GE Vernova Inc. (+263.1%) on the Dow Jones stand out. In the travel sector, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (+95.7%) leads the recovery. The Risks: Valuations in the US tech sector are at historical levels (P/E at 30x according to Bernstein), making them vulnerable to sudden profit-taking. The rally in Asia, while impressive, is exposed to geopolitical risks and a still uneven Chinese recovery.
Top Performers and Hidden Risks: Our weekly market analysis
On the macroeconomic front, the week showed strong uncertainty. US Dollar: After starting in strong ascent thanks to robust GDP data, the dollar lost ground following a disappointing wage report, closing the week almost unchanged but with significant volatility. US Macro: July factory orders disappointed (-4.8%), signaling a slowdown after the strong recovery of the previous month and adding doubts about the solidity of the economy. On the other hand, MBA mortgage applications rose 3.1%, suggesting a possible “bottoming out” for the housing market.
And in Italy?
Italy: Not all financial news is negative. The Italian manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, approaching a phase of stabilization after more than a year of contraction. In the banking sector, Monte dei Paschi di Siena surprised with a net profit of €479 million in the second quarter of 2025.
The Next Junction: What to Watch
As we have seen in our weekly financial markets summary, uncertainty is the dominant theme. The divergence between market euphoria and conflicting macro signals could lead to sudden volatility. The Fed‘s next move, with internal splits on rates, will be crucial in determining the direction of global markets. A particular point of attention concerns the divergence of views within the Federal Reserve. While the decision on rates remained unchanged, the presence of members already calling for cuts can generate uncertainty. The market will continue to closely monitor the central bank’s communications, looking for clues about the future direction of monetary policy. To navigate compliance with ease, continue to follow us in next weekly market analysis .
